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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$641.2K Vol · $41.4K Liq · Ends Jan 1, 2027

  • 7%chance
  • 94%chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Yes

6.5¢